Covid Chronicles – The Holiday Edition

With about two weeks left to Christmas and the inevitable third wave or fourth depending on who is counting.. again we had Memorial Day, the Fourth of July, Labor Day and Thanksgiving. We we warned repeatedly during each to stay long and distant and while Covid spiked in some places it declined in others and round and round we went bringing us all back to ground zero with the same hysterical warnings, the same threats, the increasing numbers of hospitalizations and deaths which have never stopped while all the world’s a stage and we are all players in this macabre scenario that reminds me of the Jerry Lewis telethon of my youth, with the never ending pleading, begging, and tears just to remember the ones being lost to a disease that could be cured. That is what we need America, a COVID telethon! Dolly Parton would be the perfect host as she is already a winner in the Covid Chronicles donating a cool Million to Vanderbilt one of the hospitals working with Big Pharma on the vaccine.

And that is where we are America the roll out of vaccine number one to hot spots in America. Undoubtedly Jared Kushner who really showed his talents and gifts for crisis management during the nascent days with the PPE and Ventilator distribution issues will perhaps hopefully take a backseat on this one and let professionals take over to distribute the drugs to those in need. Remember those days with naval ships arriving in ports, field hospitals being erected in convention centers and the charity tents in public parks? Good times folks as those numbers of cases handled and the outcomes are still in question and the costs have yet to be fully explained on how and why many hospitals remained under utilized while others were maxed out with portable tents in parking lots and refrigerator trucks for the dead left on side streets by dumpsters which became a rather significant marker to explain how we were handling Covid in Phase One.

We have had several months to improve and centralize communications, to figure out how to educate and operate schools, how to handle crowd control and compliance and yet we have done fuck all nothing other than posture and threaten. It is working out great, or not.

The issues of self responsibility continue as now violence has begun on the streets over the failed re-election of the Dr. Frankenstein who has no interest in the continuing crisis and once again Governors are assuming control, co-opting Igor for their own agenda and like the media whore he is he simply pipes in supportive yet cautious remarks which mean nothing except to remind everyone to mask up. I recall that same messaging from him back in the 80’s, no love without a glove or something like that. While I do respect Fauci I feel he is not who we need to reach a younger and more diverse audience especially faces of color and those who are not well into Science. This has been another of the more insidious issues using Fauci and Birx two white Seniors to somehow communicate to the Tik Tok age and find a voice in those larger at-risk groups that are not old folks. Fauci’s recent affirmation with Big Daddy Bully Cuomo to close restaurants with no data to back this up is again another issue across the country in California that evoked the same mandate. There is so little real contact tracing and tracking that few believe indoor dining is the cause and reason behind the uptick when the last stat mentioned by Cuomo was that 76% of the cases were tied to “small gatherings.” Okay so they were where? Homes or in a public place or again the big perp – Churches – where they can no longer mandate closures on thanks to the Supreme Court. Again, here is where religious leaders would be an effective messengers to talk to those about how one can still be a participant in a religious community without the need to congregate in a specific place. But nope, crickets.

So we can keep schools open despite the fact that few educators wish to keep open but the consultants and policy wonks and those parents who hate caring for their kids see otherwise. The constant citing of statements like “falling behind” or the “lost generation” have been used to somehow validate that opening schools and allowing full attendance is the key to something, that something again seems economic in value and not about health and safety of those who work inside said buildings, you know the Teachers and Admins as well as all the other back of the house players who keep schools operating. You know that village thing.

I have always thought it was odd that the only data we ever hear are the positive cases, the number of hospitalizations and deaths. We have no idea how many are tested a day, what the status of thier case was/is and the number of recovered. Europe does provide that but even ages, gender race are not given. If we had a robust contract tracking and tracing we would but we don’t. Jared get on that you must have time on your hands.

The overwhelming failure by our Government be it on the Federal or State level is quite clear and it is why there is little compliance and at times sheer confusion as to what the current protocol is to be on a daily basis with now the incoming Administration adding their two cents further confusing and infuriating the Trumptards.

As for the media they do their best to further lend a voice not needed to the din with their endless stating conflicting studies and data that have not been vetted and tested to the level that should be before reporting. Facts matter and the most bizarre story was one in The Washington Post about South Korea finding a patron who contracted Covid in a restaurant with limited exposure of a scant 5 minutes from another seated over 23 feet away. Really? Of course that story was a rewrite of an LA Times story. No mention in either about possible extenuating circumstances or full examination of the strain verifying it through DNA testing and complete tracking/tracing of all the participants movements, their exposures to others? Wow that South Korea is amazing that is K Pop level shit right there. Or not. The article had no South Korean sources other than a person NOT involved in the study.. okay then. As for the American scientists and doctors contacted had doubt, one saying this:

“The problem that you tend to have is one of missing information,” says Richard Martinello, an associate professor at Yale School of Medicine and a specialist in adult and pediatric infectious diseases.“They may know well what happened within that restaurant,” Martinello adds, “but they don’t know what happened on the sidewalk outside the restaurant. They don’t know what happened back in the kitchen at the restaurant. There are so many other aspects,” including the fact that one in five people infected with the coronavirus will experience no symptoms, but may still spread the virus. But then again there is a story there that will scare the shit out of everyone and in turn validate the latest round of closing just restaurants, but not anything else. I see said the reporter who upon examining his credentials I see his was one with regards to restaurant reviews not science or foreign reporting including failing to list the CDC’s findings on indoor dining. Good job, I like BimBap too!

And if you question any of this you are labeled “histrionic” as that is the man’s way of saying to a woman, “I don’t like what you have to say, it confuses me.” Ah yes my menses is the problem, shame I don’t have menses anymore. The lack of true effective communication is a bigger problem than Covid at this point and it contributes to why few are truly grasping the urgency. And that many rely upon “social” media for information, shame that social distancing can’t be applied to that as well.

I read this report in of all things USA Today about the failures of the U.S. Government from the very early stages of this disease and how the haphazard manner of coordination and control led to what we are now dealing with. There is no way of knowing if better management could of stopped or offset this entirely but there are valid issues surrounding the death toll that clearly is related to this issue.

This says it all:

The virus shouldn’t have been able to sneak up on the United States. The world’s most powerful nation, historically among the most successful at stymieing infectious illnesses, had ample lead time during which the deadly pandemic was rampaging through Asia, and then Europe.

But in an early vacuum of leadership at almost every government level, with the message from the White House that the virus was not anything to worry about, Americans unwittingly spread the lethal virus to loved ones and strangers alike.

The U.S. squandered its early advantage. Roughly one year after the virus first came into existence, the country has suffered a loss of life far worse than any other.

I have written much about Covid and kept up with many studies, theories and stories about the virus, its transmission and the issues about vaccines and efficacy. I am over Fauci but I have been for a long time frankly and would like to see new faces (not celebrities there Cuomo but actual medical professionals) who could message more effectively than another aging white man, second wave fast approaching, January 20th. I also would like real information, better and more comprehensive data in which to understand the who/what/where/when/why. Shouting out numbers like I am in Vegas is not working for me and it is not improving my histrionics in the least. There is no cure for that apparently either.

Not Alone?

I am very much alone and that has never been a better place to be than of late.  That said as more horror stories emerge about the virus and the supposed heroics of the medical front liners remember that will and should be short lived.  A little girl in Jersey City died from a gun shot wound after being sent home being told that people get shot all the time and she bled to death.  Again the woman my Barista told me of did not have to die as private Doctors and urgent care facilities are offering the Covid test for $150 bucks so she could have used that to be admitted to the hospital to be treated for what ultimately killed her – Covid related Pneumonia.

I read a tweet today from a Canadian Doctor who said that right before he intubated a 24 year old male if he had any messages to leave and the young man said, “Tell my Daughter I love her.” This was followed by this supposed Doctor with the comment, I just sent him to his death.  Really? Really? I see said the blind man.  Good to know that Canada doesn’t  have superior health care I guess!

And the reality is here in the New York area is that Covid is killing the poor and faces of color. One is the reality of living a life of the working poor, you are largely at risk for many illnesses and lack of medical care in the best of times.  The zip codes here reflect that it is killing more of those of color than white and this has only proven to me that this is a disease of the rich. They travel and utilize more services and have little regard for those not like them. They are the utter narcissists who seem clueless as to the basic norms of society, washing hands, not working sick, touching, socializing in large groups and then in turn running to secondary homes taking a nice Gucci bag packed with Covid.  The get the virus and in turn are treated with medications, have people to care for them and have simply dismissed it as the virus as they are in better health and what will kill those older and sicker appeared as simply a ‘bad flu’ so then they spread it like almond butter on wheat toast.

And in turn the endless closings, removals of benches, the stationing of now SWAT teams at the harbor to do what exactly? Corvid hunting?   I can see why park rangers are there to discourage large congregations and again two women sitting at a table or alongside each other in the park with their children playing does what exactly?  If they are not sick their children are not sick nor have been under lockdown for the last 14 days, what is the problem.  Oh wait papers please!  Don’t have that then what?   Shut it down!!

Then we have the whole economy on turnaround and the rich will not be affected by this as today the market rallies and that is all that matters.  When in reality again the largest proportion of unemployed are the service class, not the professional class.  Their rally will not be that fast but no less furious.

This is why I also call Social Media white noise as few who live online are well doing much living in the best of times.  I mean just look at the Twitter King, Donald Trump. If that doesn’t say it all what else does?  I loathe it and cannot imagine that this is the best of what we can do during this crisis.  It is a crisis man made. Literally man made.  The failures of varying Governments to step into place and secure the appropriate lockdowns, halt travel, test and track those with the virus be they symptomatic or not is the real problem.  So I am not to leave my home, go shopping, go for a walk or to a movie if I take precautions, follow a clear measure of what is called SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY and in turn live my life as I CHOOSE in this thing called a Democracy then what is the point of having one?   This virus also may kill capitalism as we know it and that fear of Socialism that the right wing crazies espouse may find that preferable over Dictatorships or Communism as Trump would love to have.

Imagine Trump who could not run a business to save his life, sadly only metaphorically, running the country the same way with all Government doing production, manufacturing and distribution? We would be dead. Ah yes the Bush years of turning much of Government over to private industry and how well that worked out?  How about when Obama opened the door for charters and the destruction of public education.  Worked out didn’t it?

Then I read this and went, “I guess I am not alone!”  As this assessment is fairly appropriate.  Duly warned this is a fucking mess that we will not come out of whole.

Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ Slams Virus Lockdowns in Tweetstorm
Reed Stevenson
Bloomberg News

Michael Burry, the doctor-turned-investor who famously bet against mortgage securities before the 2008 financial crisis, has taken to Twitter with a controversial message: lockdowns intended to contain the coronavirus pandemic are worse than the disease itself.

Government-directed shutdowns in the U.S., which led to millions of job losses and may trigger one of the country’s deepest-ever economic contractions, aren’t necessary to contain the epidemic and have disproportionately hurt low-income families and minorities, Burry argued in a series of tweets over the past two weeks. He also said some controversial treatments for Covid-19, such as the malaria drug hydroxycloroquine, should be made more widely available.

Burry earned his M.D. at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, but decided to become a professional investor after making hugely profitable bets in the stock market. He shot to fame after his hedge fund’s bearish mortgage wagers were chronicled in “The Big Short,” an Oscar-winning movie based on the best-selling book by Michael Lewis.

Although Burry has mostly kept a low profile since then, he started sharing his views more widely last year to warn of a central-bank fueled “bubble” in passive investment products. He’s now focusing on the outbreak that has shuttered economies, killed almost 75,000 people worldwide and changed how millions of people live and work.

“Universal stay-at-home is the most devastating economic force in modern history,” Burry wrote in an email to Bloomberg News. “And it is man-made. It very suddenly reverses the gains of underprivileged groups, kills and creates drug addicts, beats and terrorizes women and children in violent now-jobless households, and more. It bleeds deep anguish and suicide.”

Burry, whose utterances are closely watched by the financial community, began tweeting on March 23, describing his handle as the “real personal account of the real weird one from the book and movie, etc.” He said he began speaking out because of how people were suffering from measures taken to contain the pandemic. “Unconscionable,” is how he described job losses in the U.S., which have caused a once-unthinkable 10 million people to apply for unemployment benefits in the past two weeks.

Burry has taken on medical policymakers in tweets regarding the illness itself, saying coronavirus infections can be managed through common-sense measures like increased hand-washing and broader testing, without forcing everyone to stay at home. He’s also advocating for wider use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine to treat those who are infected. U.S. President Donald Trump has called the latter drug a “game changer” in the fight against Covid-19, but critics in the scientific community have urged caution, saying it isn’t fully tested or approved.

On Sunday, U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams said there had been some accounts that hydroxychloroquine was helping. “We feel a little bit better regarding its safety than we do about a completely novel drug, even though this is being used at much higher dosages,” he said.

Burry has so far refrained from tweeting about his investments. He told Bloomberg News last month that he placed a “significant bearish market bet that is working out for now,” without providing details except to say it was a trade of a “good size” against indexes. He said the pandemic could unwind the passive investment boom, which he has compared to purchases of collateralized debt obligations that fueled the pre-2008 mortgage bubble.

While Burry has been mostly critical of the economic and medical measures taken by authorities across the globe, he has also highlighted large economies that haven’t seen as much turmoil as the U.S. and Britain. Germany and Japan have been more measured in their responses and offer a model for the rest of the world, Burry said.

In a tweet on March 25, Burry issued his own prescription for Americans to overcome the crisis:

Burry responded to questions via email to offer more thoughts on the pandemic and the response to the outbreak. Here’s what he had to say about China’s response, how some countries have handled the outbreak differently and the long-term impact.

“This is a new form of coronavirus that emanated from a country, China, that unfortunately covered it up. That was the original sin. It transmits very easily, and within the first month it was likely all over the world. Very poor testing infrastructure created an information vacuum as cases ramped, ventilator shortages were projected. Politicians panicked and media filled the space with their own ignorance and greed. It was a toxic mix that led to the shutdown of the U.S., and hence much of the world economy.”

“In hindsight, each country should have immediately ramped up rapid field testing of at-risk groups. But as I understand it, the CDC was tasked with some of this, and botched it, and other departments were no better. The bureaucracy failed in a good number of countries. Turf wars and incompetence has ruled the day. So the political cover for that failure on the part of the technocrats and politicians is a very harsh stay-at-home policy.”

“If there was ever a time for the government to stimulate with fiscal and monetary policy, it is now. Unfortunately, the U.S. has been adding $3 for every $1 of new GDP over a very long time, and interest rates were already near zero. Still, nothing is more important now that loans to small and mid-sized businesses, and the U.S. Treasury, backed by the Fed, is providing that liquidity, which is vital.”

“It’s pretty clear that hydrochloroquine is doing something good for many Covid-19 patients. The standard in medicine is a placebo-controlled double-blind study. But there is no time for that. The technocrats at the top are getting this wrong. Do the studies, make the vaccines, but allow doctors to have what they feel is working now. Don’t take tools or drugs out of the treating doctors’ hands. Trump should use the Defense Production Act more liberally in this area.”

“A more nuanced approach would be for at risk groups — the obese, old and already-sick — to shelter in place, to execute widespread mandatory testing, and to ID and track as necessary while allowing society to function. Again, Trump should get the massive contract manufacturers like Flextronics to make testing machines.”

“I would lift stay-at-home orders except for known risk groups. We already know certain conditions that are predictive of severe disease. Especially since young healthy lungs tend to be resistant, I would let the virus circulate in the population that is not likely to get severe disease from it. This is the only path that comes close to balancing the needs of all groups. Vaccines are not coming anytime soon, so natural immunity is the only way out for now. Every day, every week in the current situation is ruining innumerable lives in a criminally unjust manner.”

“When it comes to vaccines, coronaviruses are not known for imparting enduring immunity, and this will be one big challenge. It seems the genetic code is relatively conserved, and this will help the development of the vaccine. But we’re still looking at the end of the year. In the meantime, the world is an innovative place, and I expect many effective treatments — both new and repurposed — shortly. The question then will be regulation, expense and availability.”

“Medically, the new normal will be the old normal. As long as innovation continues, medicine will conquer everything in our way.”

“I believe Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is trying his best to manage through the situation without shuttering the economy. He sees what it has done to the U.S., and would rather not force a shut in, but instead asks for common sense. Japan has certain features — such as a largely lawful and well-educated society — that make this more possible. As do Taiwan, Singapore, Korea.”

“Economically speaking, we have to realize the policy-driven demand shock will be resolved by 2021. But Japan and the U.S. are putting more than 20% of the GDP into new fiscal stimulus, and easy money will be the rule. Those things will all bring stock and debt markets back.”

“Countries will also look to bring supply chains home, and many employees will need retraining with higher cost. When we start working and playing again, inflation may be in store. The other big point is that consumers have learned new behaviors, which will drive business churn.”