Big Rent Due

While I have written about the issues facing residential renters that is a double edged problem as some owners are small scale landlords with one or two investment properties that rent is the primary financial investment to pay the mortgages, taxes and incidental costs required to maintain and own investment properties. In 2008 many single investors bought numerous properties with the intent of owning as a method of long term investment and when that market collapsed it led many tenants in the lurch as banks foreclosed or the property was sold to larger REIT venture capitalists in which to again refurbish and resell or use as rental markets demanded including short term/Airbnb use. That too is another fallout post Covid for the small investor who are now listing furnished properties for rent with shorter leases in anticipation for the long term while others are simply moving to the more traditional means or trying to sell them. And once again the venture capitalists are quickly buying up such properties as well for their own long term gain.

That said the multiple family units be they condos or apartments are a market I have yet to see what will result as again I suspect many residents will want out of such hot boxes of confinement due to costs, lack of space and simply fewer demands to distance upon entering or exiting the property. The building behind me is one such example as an albatross that they stupidly accelerated and now will have multiple expensive units in which will go vacant for I suspect quite some time.

This from Forbes:  According to RealPage, about 370,000 new high-end units are to reach competition this year (although construction delays and disruptions could deflate this number), marking a 50% increase from the national supply that came online in 2019. 

“We have too much product that was either just completed or under construction and you’re not going to have people moving around as much as [it would be otherwise] typical in the near term,” says Willett. “It’s going be really hard to get that new product filled up.”

For the summer months, which usually see a peak in rental demand, it’s still hard to tell what the effects will be, despite the impacts already rippling throughout the industry.

“Everybody’s wondering what this all means for the summer leasing season,” says Robert Pinnegar, CEO of the National Apartment Association. “Traditionally, the summer period is when you see the most movement of people from property to property, from state to state, from city to the city.

“With the uncertainty that’s going on now, especially with the economy essentially being at a standstill, nobody really knows what that’s going to do. And the unknown factor here is what government policy is going to be with regards to how we interact when the businesses reopen.”

And if working from home becomes the norm it may mean larger plans other than just redesign and scheduling staffing needs for many companies as it too will have a ripple affect and nowhere will feel it more than Manhattan.

Which brings me to the issue of commercial properties which have been on the upswing in most markets, while housing lagged, this is one area of build that has not. Crane watch became the mantra of most business journals under some misguided (intentionally or not) to sell and market their cities to businesses in which to relocate their operations. Along with massive tax incentives that enables business to not pay income nor other revenue generating taxes for decades it become an inticing invite to enable business to hopscotch across America while small business are given no such breaks and they continue to generate the most jobs and in turn revenue to the state coffers. Then came Covid and that game changed.

Small business owners closed are already struggling with rent and now the added lootings we may see more closures and in turn that will affect overall taxes and mortgage burdens.   But it is not only the small businesses.

This from the Washington Post:   Nearly half of commercial retail rents were not paid in May. Companies as big as Starbucks say the financial devastation from the shutdown has left them unable to pay their full property bills on time. Some companies warn they will not be able to pay rent for months. And this from the New York Times:  If building owners cannot come up with enough money to pay their next property tax bill in five weeks, a deadline the city has refused to postpone, the city will be starved of an enormous revenue stream that helps pay for all aspects of everyday life, from the Fire Department to trash pickup to the public hospitals. It could lead to a bleak landscape of vacant storefronts and streets sapped of their energy.

But again like residential rents, commercial ones are not doing much to re-examine their balance sheets and rental agreements. This is from one such store owner in New York:  In 2018, even the national chains began closing more spaces than they opened. Rents have come down somewhat in a few heavy shopping arteries, but on the streets where I was looking to open stores, rents didn’t seem to budge. In 2019, rent for my NoLIta store jumped from $360,000 a year to $650,000.

And I laugh at the once adored WeWork that had everyone salivating at their “worth” that fell hard and fast before Covid and now it too has been infected with LayOff mentality and demands to reduce rents.

This is one new road we are going down and it sure as hell is like the rest of our infrastructure, rocky, bumpy and full of holes.

Office Towers Are Still Going Up, but Who Will Fill Them?

Developers around the country are grappling with the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic as tenants cancel plans and workers fear returning to the office.

The New York Times
By Kevin Williams
Published June 2, 2020

Before the pandemic shut down businesses, a robust economy had powered a building boom, sending office towers skyward in urban areas across the United States. The coronavirus outbreak, though, has scrambled plans and sent jitters through the real estate industry.

Skyscrapers scheduled to open this year will remake skylines in cities like Milwaukee, Nashville and Salt Lake City. Office vacancy rates, following a decade-long trend, had shrunk to 9.7 percent at the end of the third quarter of 2019, compared with 13 percent in the third quarter of 2010, according to Deloitte.

Developers were confident that the demand would remain strong. But the pandemic darkened the picture.

“There is a pause occurring as companies more broadly consider their real estate needs,” said Jim Berry, Deloitte’s U.S. real estate sector leader.

The timing is unfortunate for Mark F. Irgens, whose 25-story BMO Tower in Milwaukee opened in mid-April at the peak of the statewide lockdown in Wisconsin. A month later, a small fraction of typical daytime foot traffic was passing by as most businesses adhered to the governor’s stay-at-home directive, which expired last week. A restaurant that was slated for the ground level was canceled, and three potential tenants have delayed their plans.

Instead of showing off the building’s sparkling Italian marble floors and panoramic vistas of Lake Michigan, Mr. Irgens is worrying about who is going to pull out next and what type of corporate landscape he might face when the pandemic finally ends.

But he is not putting on the brakes. The BMO had been planned for five years, and he has leases to negotiate, investors to please, tenants to woo and loans to pay off.

“Development projects are different than making widgets,” he said. “You can’t stop; you can’t turn it off. You have to continue.”

Slowly, workers are filling their BMO offices. Managers, who were scheduled to report on Monday, constitute about 15 percent of the building’s occupancy. Mr. Irgens thinks it will be the end of the summer before it gets up to 50 percent. Without a coronavirus vaccine, it may be year’s end before the building approaches a “normal” occupancy, he said.

Other developers around the country are also dealing with the fallout, especially for towers with Class A space, regarded as the highest-quality real estate on the market. In most cases, new buildings are not fully occupied, and developers were counting on a strong economy to do the work for them. For instance, the BMO Tower was 55 percent leased before the pandemic.

The question facing the owners of office towers is: Will anyone still want the space when coronavirus crisis fades?

If the economic pain drags on, there could be long-lasting changes to the way people work and how tenants want offices to be reimagined, said Joseph L. Pagliari Jr., clinical professor of real estate at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. Some of the changes — like more spacious elevators — could be costly to put into place, he said.

The pandemic could be a “pivot point,” Mr. Pagliari said, and that would be bad news for building owners. The office towers were designed to be “best in class,” he said, but the pandemic has suddenly made their most salable amenities — common areas, fitness centers and food courts — into potential liabilities.

The economic crisis could also spur high interest rates on debt, which would cause building values to fall, Mr. Pagliari said. That may happen even if the crisis diminishes in the weeks ahead.

“The current pandemic has raised perceptions about the likelihood and consequences of future pandemics,” Mr. Pagliari said. Developers who can factor in such events will gain an advantage, but any skyscrapers that are built with pandemic fears in mind are years away.

The prospect that workers may want to continue working from home does not worry John O’Donnell, the chief executive of Riverside Investment and Development, which is developing a 55-story tower at 110 North Wacker Drive in Chicago. The tallest office building erected in the city since 1990, it is scheduled to open in August and will be anchored by Bank of America. Other tenants include law firms, many of which are doing business from home.

“There is a need for collaboration, team building, common business cultures and a continuous desire to have social contact within a business,” Mr. O’Donnell said.

The building is 80 percent leased ahead of its August opening. One tenant signed for 40,000 square feet of office space at the height of the lockdown, which Mr. O’Donnell took as an encouraging sign.

The building is already being adjusted to meet post-pandemic needs, something Mr. O’Donnell said newer structures were better able to do. Amenities are being updated to be touch free. And owners are talking with tenants about walk-through thermal imaging to monitor workers and visitors for fevers.

The pandemic will result in a demand for more office space, not less, said Paul H. Layne, the chief executive of the Howard Hughes Corporation, a national commercial real estate developer based in Houston. Developers will move away from the industry-standard 125 square feet per person toward roomier workplaces.

But others say it is too early to tell when demand for office space will return. Jamil Alam, managing principal of Endeavor Real Estate Group, said the situation would vary by city.

“There will be winners and losers,” Mr. Alam said, explaining that he thinks denser metro areas like New York and Boston, which have been ravaged by the coronavirus, could find their luster lost in favor of smaller markets.

Endeavor, which is based in Austin, Texas, has a portfolio that includes 15.6 million square feet of commercial real estate in cities like Dallas, Denver and Nashville. One of its projects, the 20-story Gulch Union, will be the largest office tower in Nashville when it opens in August with 324,254 square feet of office space.

Smaller markets like Nashville are well positioned for companies wishing to pull up stakes from major metropolitan areas with higher density and costs, Mr. Alam said. Gulch Union has leased 27,000 square feet, and four more deals totaling 40,000 square feet are near completion.

“Deals are still being done,” he said.

There will be an appetite for urban, walkable, mixed-use office environments, Mr. Alam said, and changes will need to be made in buildings over time, like fewer touch points on handles and elevator buttons.

But projects that have not been started yet will be paused, said Chris Kirk, managing principal of the Salt Lake City office of Colliers, the commercial real estate brokerage firm.

“If you are a developer or landlord or C.F.O., you are concerned,” he said. “Everyone is feeling the impact.”

And the city is experiencing a building spurt downtown. A 24-story Class A tower developed by City Creek Reserve, the development arm of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, is scheduled for completion next year. The building, which will have 589,945 square feet of office space, is already 80 percent leased.

Salt Lake City has been averaging a new Class A office high-rise every decade, and the pace is increasing. Still, the pandemic might put the brakes on that.

“Anyone who would be coming out of ground speculatively now without the commitment has got to be thinking about their timing,” Mr. Kirk said.

Mr. Irgens hopes to ride out the pandemic and continue with other projects. In February, his company broke ground on a six-story building in Tempe, Ariz., and it is moving forward with a 235,000-square-foot Milwaukee office project that is 42 percent leased.

“My partners in my business are working really hard to figure out how to have business continuity, and it is really hard to do that,” he said. “Things are changing daily.”

Small is Big

From the SBA regarding small businesses in the United States:

United States small businesses employed 58.9 million peo­ple, or 47.5% of the private workforce, in 2015.48 percent of all US employees work for small businesses, down from 52 percent in the early 2000s. 18 percent of all US employees work for businesses with fewer than 20 employees. Small businesses accounted for over half of net job creation in 2014. 

So in other words while some of the major players in industry, hospitality, travel and retail took the initial hits the reality is that all the small businesses, the yoga studios, hair salons, the nail salons, the gyms and the rest of the little stores that line the blocks of towns and cities, including many restaurants are under that classification will be following suit, the difference is that they won’t be back as many of them will file bankruptcy. And for many they will in turn lose homes as that is the largest source of collateral used to gain funds. The rest are almost all financed from from non-banks and non-banks carry more loans that the GDP of Great Britain.  The FDIC explains why in detail how and why this is more common than you think, so their collapse akin to 2008 is highly likely.  And the start of the PPP was so badly handled there doesn’t seem to be any answer on how to fix the mess.

What is more troubling is that many of the larger seemingly well financed groups that run a series of restaurants and bars are not any healthier.  This essay  by Gabrielle Hamilton,  a well respected Chef in New York, one considered highly successful, wrote the truths of her closing Prune.  And, she like many of her competitors and in turn suppliers, (as like all businesses there is a tier of connected businesses that are linked to the success and failure of the host) have found themselves barely afloat in this sea of change.   No this is not the “new normal” this is the new abnormal. 

Small business used to define America’s economy. The pandemic could change that forever.

More than 100,000 small businesses have closed forever as the nation’s pandemic toll escalates

Washington Post
Heather Long
May 12, 2020 

The coronavirus pandemic is emerging as an existential threat to the nation’s small businesses — despite Congress approving a historic $700 billion to support them — with the potential to further diminish the place of small companies in the American economy.

The White House and Congress have made saving small businesses a linchpin of the financial rescue, even passing a second stimulus for them late last month. But already, economists project that more than 100,000 small businesses have shut permanently since the pandemic escalated in March, according to a study by researchers at the University of Illinois, Harvard Business School, Harvard University and the University of Chicago. Their latest data suggests at least 2 percent of small businesses are gone, according to a survey conducted May 9 to 11.

The carnage has been even higher in the restaurant industry, where 3 percent of restaurant operators have gone out of business, according to the National Restaurant Association.

The awful reason wages appeared to soar in the middle of a pandemic

Tearful, heartfelt announcements about small-business closures are popping up on websites and Facebook pages around the country. Analysts warn this is only the beginning of the worst wave of small-business bankruptcies and closures since the Great Depression. It’s simply not possible for small businesses to survive with no income coming in for weeks followed by reopening at half capacity, many owners say.

The result is likely to further shift the balance of power — and jobs — toward big businesses that have a better chance of surviving the uncertain year ahead by borrowing money or drawing on large cash reserves. Emergency actions by the Federal Reserve, backed by the Treasury, have made borrowing money almost free for large companies.

“We are going to see a level of bankruptcy activity that nobody in business has seen in their lifetime,” said James Hammond, chief executive of New Generation Research, which tracks bankruptcy trends. “This will hit everyone, but it will be harder for small businesses since they don’t have a lot of spare cash.”

While 4.2 million businesses have received emergency loans from the Small Business Administration, it’s a fraction of the 30 million small firms in the nation. Many small-business owners say Congress’ financial rescue isn’t designed well to help very small businesses, known as micro firms, that have large overhead costs such as rent.

“It wouldn’t be surprising if well over 1 million of these micro firms ultimately fail,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, wrote in a recent note to clients, referring to firms with fewer than 10 employees.

In the 1980s and 1990s, small businesses employed over half of American workers, but that dynamic has shifted over time. By 2017, only 47 percent of private-sector employees were at small businesses, and the pandemic appears to be reducing that again.

In April, smaller firms had substantially more layoffs than larger ones, according to payroll processor ADP, an early warning sign.
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Losing small businesses often creates a ripple effect in communities, especially smaller towns where little shops and restaurants remain the lifeblood of Main Street. These business owners often depend on each other, meaning as some shutter forever, it can trigger more to follow.

“This is culturally devastating for communities. Small businesses really help provide communities with a sense of identity and place,” said Patrice Frey, president of the National Main Street Center, which advocates for restoring downtown hubs. “It’s very difficult to imagine how these businesses are going to be replaced easily, especially in more rural and distressed areas.”

After decades in business, places including Ricardo’s Mexican Restaurant in Las Vegas, Biba Restaurant in Sacramento, Great Scott music venue in Boston and Tony Ciccarelli barbershop in Troy, N.Y., are closing forever. Many made their announcements just before May 1 rent was due.

Bridget McGinty is among those who made the gut-wrenching call on May 1 to close permanently.

For 19 years, McGinty and her sister ran Tastebuds, a popular Cleveland lunch spot. The business was on “life support” last month, she said, and she didn’t think they could survive the summer paying rent and making virtually no money as downtown Cleveland remains largely deserted.

“There were just too many things against us,” said McGinty, still choking up at having to say it aloud.

Congress approved more than $700 billion in relief for small businesses, mostly in the form of Paycheck Protection Program loans and grants. The money comes from the Small Business Administration, although business owners apply for it through their local bank.

Business owners like McGinty who are closing permanently say the process was too slow and the money covers only about two months of expenses, if that, even though it’s likely to be months before restaurants, gyms and stores are full again.

Still waiting for your stimulus check? You have until 12 p.m. Wednesday to give the IRS your bank information.

Neil Bradley, chief policy officer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, is urging Congress to come up with a special “bridge program” to help restaurants, movie theaters, hair salons and other places that won’t be able to open at full capacity for a long time. But negotiations between Congress and the White House on the next economic relief package have stalled.
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Another big complaint is that small businesses have to use three-quarters of the PPP money on payroll in order for it to become a grant that does not have to be repaid. Congress designed the PPP program that way to help save jobs, but it is causing problems when rent or other expenses represent a larger share of a company’s obligations, compared with payroll.

“What we hear over and over again is the federal stimulus isn’t really working for the restaurant industry,” said John Barker, president of the Ohio Restaurant Association. He’s urging Congress to build in “at least some flexibility” on how and when the grant money can be used.
Bridget McGinty, right, and made the hard decision to close Tastebuds, the award-winning restaurant she ran in Cleveland, Ohio for 19 years. She didn’t think she could survive until workers returned to downtown businesses later this year. (Photo from Tastebuds’ website. McGinty’s mother, Mary McGinty, is on the left).
Bridget McGinty, right, and made the hard decision to close Tastebuds, the award-winning restaurant she ran in Cleveland, Ohio for 19 years. She didn’t think she could survive until workers returned to downtown businesses later this year. (Photo from Tastebuds’ website. McGinty’s mother, Mary McGinty, is on the left). (Heather Long/Tastebuds)

McGinty is an example. Her decision to close means her five employees must look for new jobs. After exhausting the $15,000 in cash she had in the bank, she applied for a PPP loan but quickly realized it wouldn’t work well for her since her overhead costs are equal, if not more, than wages for her workers. On top of rent, restaurants have the added cost of replacing all their food since most of what they had in their refrigerators in March has gone bad.
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“It’s going to take so long for restaurants to come out of debt or to just break even,” McGinty said. She urged landlords to “just forgive the rent” for April and May. Otherwise it becomes an “unbearable burden in the future” that small-business owners will struggle to pay later this year.

There’s a growing possibility of a W-shaped economic recovery — and it’s scary

The economists who have been tracking permanent small-business closures also found that 34 percent of small businesses said they are either paying reduced rent or delaying the payment, according to a poll conducted April 25 to 27. The researchers have been doing informal surveys of over 50,000 small-business owners that subscribe to the Alignable business network. Respondents come from a wide variety of industries and roughly mirror government data on small-business characteristics.

As business owners debate whether to take PPP money, some are opting to reinvent their business model instead, often by doing more online and reducing staff costs.

Dave and Stacy Dockins spent the last night in April holding hands and coming to terms with one of the hardest decisions of their marriage. The couple has run the popular Yoga Project studios in the Fort Worth area for 15 years. But on May 1, they decided to close all three of their yoga studios.

“We were afraid it would come to this. The money is just running out,” said Dave Dockins, after four different banks failed to process his PPP loan applications. “It’s still really raw for my wife and I. This is the hardest decision we’ve ever made.”

They said closing was their only option because they could no longer afford the rent and other overhead costs. The PPP was a poor option for them because their instructors are usually contractors — 1099 workers — who are not eligible for the payroll money.

Another issue with the PPP loan is that it covers only eight weeks of expenses, and the money must be used as soon as the business owner starts receiving it. That’s tough for restaurants and other businesses that are still closed or operating with a skeleton crew for takeout. They do not need all of their workers.

The iconic brands that could disappear because of coronavirus

Some business owners say the money would be more helpful later in the summer when they can hopefully try to bring in more customers.

“If restaurants are only allowed to open at half capacity, that is a nail in the coffin right there,” said Justin Barrett, the chef and owner of Piecemeal Pies in White River Junction, Vt. “Consecutive rounds of PPP should be considered for small businesses until there is a vaccine.”

Piecemeal Pies is a small 25-seat restaurant that specializes in British meat pies and cider. Customers used to love sitting at the counter or communal table — attractions that have become liabilities in the era of social distancing. They created “Pie Day Friday” for customers to order takeout, but it isn’t bringing in much revenue and doesn’t require all nine of his workers.

Barrett got a PPP loan, but the money will be gone by mid-June.

Dave and Stacy Dockins say they are working “the hardest we’ve ever worked in our lives” as they broadcast Yoga Project sessions from their home and try to build up online membership.

McGinty’s Cleveland restaurant isn’t reopening, but she’s still busy: She spent the past few days donating most of her equipment and furniture to a local Catholic parish’s food pantry and community center in between calls with her landlord, bank and insurance agent.

Each one is trying to be nimble, but none is sleeping well at night.

The Gumshoe

This was the old fashioned Detective that used shoe leather to track and expose the liar, the cheater, the fraud or whomever he was hired to expose.  Clearly here we could use some Columbo as there is no one sourcing the varying outbreaks and stopping the spread. So now we are to do so by never leaving our homes unless “essential” and in turn have others do all of our heavy lifting.  It clearly is not working.

In the meantime as more draconian and other absurd measures are added daily to change the behavior of a city and their inhabitants we comply with no clear idea what if anything is actually being done to stop Corvid other than pure fucking luck.  We have no comprehensive testing strategy, numerous labs processing them, protocols that must be met 100% in order to be tested, a shortage of tests, or of labs to process said test or of drugs needed to compose said tests and trained personnel to perform said tests. There are antibody tests that are providing false negatives and on that case we have no way of knowing that margin or error or the same in reverse, false positives.  Meanwhile CDG is going the states will fix it.  No, no they wont and any resident of New Jersey can attest to that for the fucked up testing across the state, the cities doing their own and the numbers that seem to have odd totals.. are they just public health testing/diagnosis or is it all inclusive showing total cases? Then we have the death count and that is per day or is it? As there is a lag time, again unclear as to that time frame, before added to the death tolls.  The number of tests that are scheduled in advance seem to always have more patients than tests. How is that?  How do your run out of something you have an allotment for and schedule people for?  And the never ending screed of we are trying to protect you but finding masks, protective gear and other essential items for health care workers is akin to Black Friday and is a game where we fight over the last Sony TV.

I have tried to figure out the numbers and try to verify the endless stories of the gangs, groups and others hanging out, causing disruption which explains why we cannot walk in parks or go anywhere without putting on a costume in which to be compliant and safe.  There are endless laws and ordinances that prohibit this and yet it is not enforceable or is that due to a lack of law enforcement? As I see daily SWAT, Police, State Patrol, Sheriffs, Park Rangers and basically anyone willing to throw on a uniform and be vigilant or do I mean vigilante to ensure public safety.

But I have read of numerous idiots throwing parties and soirees and attending meetings, getting on planes all after being tested and yet not self quarantining.  Who are they are why are they not also cited and arrested if and when the recover. Its not as if we haven’t shackled pregnant women to hospital beds.

So when I read this about Boston and their attempt to manually track and trace exposed individuals I laughed as this was standard during the HIV crisis but this is not about securing public safety this is about a failure of our Government and in turn a way to finally evict Trump from the White House so why would any Governor take it upon themselves to try to do something, anything.

Then have the warehouses for the dead that have been a pandemic on their own accord, where in New Jersey some old people were shoved in a closet and in Queens they are not sure what the fuck went on but hey let’s get busy closing parks and yelling about shit that has been beaten over our head for over a month now.

Then we have food hoarding, food being trashed and food banks at full on capacity and desperation as the unemployment numbers rise and yet that gets glossed over if not ignored. But post a question on Facebook about Corvid you will be reprimanded as I was by the Jersey City Dept of Health woman whose degree from Harvard is in Business and Econ not Health or Medicine but repeats the talking points of the CDC and extrapolates incorrectly facts from a Lancet article in which to do so. Comforting I am sure but for whom I have no fucking clue.

As we continue to move forward blindly we are heading into a social climate that we will not be able to distance ourselves from. The end of Small Town America  as we know it is gone. We have an entire ecosystem in conflux and somehow we are to restart an entire economy how as clearly it was not that great after all.    

The Small Business plan has already collapsed so now what?And the recent unrest by the right wing fringe will expand as while they are premature on this it is coming. And the Stimulus is of course fucked up and again this will be another insufficient bandaid to a seeping wound, as when Steve Munchin thought 1,200 bucks was good money explains it all.

But the reality is that renters have an opportunity to be heard as there is bill in the House that addresses this issue that moratoriums on evictions fails to do.

And lastly the TV Doctors who have come out of the closet to make it clear that they don’t get it/agree with or well give a shit. Here is the deal I get the idea of asking questions but use actual numbers, have coherent comparisons  on which to provide as an analogy and ask logical ones that put the ending conflicting data and facts on watch.  Again why this now and not then? Why the change when three weeks ago it was not needed and how do you substantiate it.  As I said in my encounter with the Jersey City Public Health woman when she explained to me that Corvid can live for 37 days and have 14 day spread period. HUH. Is it 37 or 14?  What she meant is that there are patients who have had the virus for 37 days, that it has an incubation period in a human for up to 14 days and the virus can live outside on surfaces for up to 72 hours on certain types of materials. NONE of that is what she said it was gibberish.  I didn’t go to Harvard however.

Going Forward

As I try to find some bright side to the pandemic I think well the stupid may die first as they seem utterly oblivious to the seriousness of the issues and are refusing to follow any protocol, such as the basic minimum which is washing hands, the other is that well they will become drug addicts or alcoholics after this and die from that so regardless we are thinning the heard.

Here is the rundown of yesterday’s idiotic conversations:

The paranoid Barista was not working yesterday but a colleague did tell me he is utterly afraid and hysterical over Covid but has no ability nor interest other than reading his Facebook posts where they quote numbers and “facts” gleaned from a hybrid of sources none of them legitimate journals, newspapers or even news that will help him well still be afraid but have some perspective.  Again he was a Teacher and was demanding that we “shut it all down” but had no clear idea what that meant.

Then we had the varying closing, attempted openings and delivery of restaurants throughout Jersey City and that in turn has led to more confusion and unemployment that will lead to more misinformation and of course contribute to further chaos down the line.  As even one Barista was unaware that while I paid 9 bucks for flowers she thought that was too expensive but wanted some and I said: “Well good luck as flowers are not essential and in turn flower markets where they are bought and sold to merchants are largely closed to a single source or two so that markup is pretty much given as there is no way to competitively shop and find sources that are cheaper so I am willing to pay that for some semblance of normal in my home.”  Again, the commenting and scolding about price but endlessly prattling on about flowers and having to find them.  Well as the adage goes, “If you have to ask you probably can’t afford it.”   And again the shop is keeping the bare minimum of workers by having them cover two small shifts which means they have money but they are also not able to qualify for unemployment so the purpose is what exactly?  How about firing them all and have four people work the 8 hour day and that is it and rotate them.  Nope its five people shifting four hours two days a week.  Really? So I told two to sign up for food stamps and Medicaid at least.

And this is where most of the food providers in restaurants are doing, having this sad staff of folks trying to maintain a full time business that is no longer full time.  So how do you make that work? You don’t or you have a skeleton crew willing to work the hours and accept that it is better than nothing or have nothing as there is a choice. And some business that had a strong take out will always simply pivot and some even chose to not which again was more about overhead and costs than the ability to pivot hours and options for delivery.   Some are consolidating shops and having one open and encouraging delivery but alas a local bakery could not even make that  work as they were simply too afraid so shut it down!   Again I said that to the young man after the option of shut it down also meant that while he cannot change people and their behavior he can change his and NEVER leave his home ever.  And with that dopey pony is the response and I take my leave.  I have since found a coffee shop that is open 8-4 daily two workers in total and closed on Wednesday’s to take a break.  Makes sense and at least they are there and I can avoid the stupid.

That has been the biggest challenge as to how to staff. We were on a skeleton crew of Concierge’s and in turn the package delivery has led to chaos in the lobby to the point I don’t even go in it unless I have to.  The food and the other assorted drop offs that can be done contactless are also overwhelming that at one point I could not even see one behind them all.  Many are utter nonsense as well I too have taken advantage of desperate merchants to buy some clothing but mostly non-essential items such as hair dye, face creams, and other luxury items to at least be able to maintain my  own personal well being and have some normalcy.  And yes I do get Whole Foods delivery but that is to supplement my attempt to actually buy groceries dressed as a ninja warrior against covid but I do go.

And yesterday one of the staff told me his friends had gotten their “Trump checks” and he thought that was made up and no such thing existed. Well half right as again this is student in Nursing college, right there explains some of the problems, and in turn he is an idiot as he tried to book a flight to Florida mid March to take advantage of the cheap flights; Again – Nursing student.
I explained to him that these “Trump checks” are real but his friends are lying to him and that the stimulus has not been disbursed and will be tentatively coming next week and in waves depending on many factors.  Again he quoted his friends telling him that they have said checks so I went up pulled up the Washington Post and an article on the stimulus and printed it took it down to the front desk and left it there for him to read later so he would know they were lying and how that program was being implemented, the one he did not believe was real. I doubt he read it as it would require reading.  Okay then.

The other two staffers are on medical leave not from Covid but from stress and one man is truly too old and has extraneous health problems to work in this building during the prime hours of 7-3.  He should work graveyard, literally pun intended, or work in a smaller building that has less chaos and fewer residents.  My building is a hot mess of families with dogs and kids and they are largely idiots who cannot manage throwing out trash correctly as walking into the refuse room daily is like walking into a petri dish of discarded food and other bacteria and virus loaded packages that for some reason cannot be broken down and thrown away properly.  Go figure.

The reality is that we are in dark times and when the lockdown is lifted it will be an insane rush to go to the stores that will never re-open, hello Macy’s and Bed, Bath and Beyond, and then to sit in every restaurant which were the only ones ever open during this so by this time are you not sick of the food?  And of course race to every public facility, other than libraries, to crowd out and shove others in an attempt to secure some other item that they did not buy/hoard/need online during the past 90 days. And that is when wave two will hit.   It is then in those first 14 days I will self quarantine and still maintain the Covid protocol of gloves, face mask and long sleeves. Good times, end times.

With unemployment at 6 million and climbing over 2 million from last week this will not be a sudden switch back to full employment the next day. Nope not going to happen.  Schools will not start on a summer timetable they will go back in September, the varying restaurants, theaters and other entertainment facilities will not suddenly re-open. Some museums may on a shortened timetable and some may find themselves in deep shit and may end up closing permanently.  The real estate market will get hit if they don’t die off first and anyone who thinks otherwise is a real estate agent; However,   the luxury market will rebound as rich people will need haircuts, spa treatments and of course a vacation from being locked up in their vacation home.  The push for them to have private planes and other modes of travel to further segregate them from ever being exposed to the general public will ramp up and of course the public will head to buy cars and other modes of transports to avoid public transportation so that debt will increase and in turn progress on that infrastructure will cease and the aged trains, buses, subways will be packed as ever with the great unwashed as service will be cut in response to meet budgets that did not include the BILLIONS in chaos relief fund.  So many folks after realizing city life is not that great, Green Acres here we come, and with that they may move to the burbs,  so that market for homes will rise and in turn set into motion a new housing debt crisis.    Urban density will not be as green and attractive as it once was but the rental market will not reduce rents in response, re-negotiate leases as they will find property taxes risen to meet new budgets and of course wages will level back to 2008 level and debt will rise to much higher levels as people try to figure out how to get back to “normal.” There will be no normal.

As for the homeless crisis it will in turn increase, the medical industry lauded as heroes now will be charlatans that played with people’s lives and in turn the costs and overall rise of insurance will lead people to finally go “Oh yeah I guess I can’t keep my employer care” when they find out how that benefit will be cut to offset loss of profits for the business providing said benefit when private insurance companies rise costs to offset the rise in overall costs. Got to make a profit folks!

Oddly Goldman Sachs is already “forecasting” a quick turnaround and as they are the Vampire Squid of banks I suspect that they are already buying distressed stocks, companies and other bonds being sold at a discount by the fed to encourage the economy and what the Corvid virus did not kill they will. So say goodbye to many franchises, hotels, and restaurant chains that are not just big names but smaller ones held by small investors that run several restaurants, properties  and bars in their local areas.  Leases will be re-negotiated, staff rehired at lower wages and in turn any properties that are not making the their profit margins will be promptly sold off.

And yes we will go forward. Trump will be re-elected as the lack of focus on the election, the moving of dates for primaries, the conventions and the overall hysteria will not be done by November and at that point the few who vote will and that is usually diehards who are largely conservative; That is if they are not dead as well they are old and the young and stupid which seems to be Covid’s targets.   As for my Concierge staff they don’t read so no on voting as one is not even registered and again seems to think Trump Checks are being cut as I write this and another is sure that we should have “shut it down” he is the doppelgänger of the young Barista so again this is where we are.

Americans are stupid, ill informed and utterly ignorant. They thrive on competitiveness, greed and self absorption. As my friend who wants to be a Minister I asked him what qualities that he possesses that would make him a good one and he goes: “A fear of God and love of Scripture.” That says it all, nothing about loving life, sharing a love of God, building community and having empathy and compassion, two traits I would tie to being a Minister.  And that sums up Americans, a lack of compassion and empathy and in turn that is why they have a lack of personal responsibility when it comes to the health and overall wealth of the larger picture.  So going forward it will be business as usual. We are fucked with dinner however as some take out joints will still be open.

No Way Forward

I explained to my ice cream vendor that life is a river and in it and with it flows the good and the bad and that right now we are in a bad current but that like all water it ebbs, crests and descends and in turn the good will flow back into land.  That is what our economy has been like for the last decade after 2008, the reset button was hit and it took a decade for full reset.  The water was there and like all tides it was going to flow out, a pandemic was not quite what anyone predicted that would cause a recession but shit if anything was going to trash the global economy this is one hell of a big one.  The housing crisis seems almost silly in comparison like someone left the tap too long in the tub and the plumber came and all is fine.  This will not be the same.

In the below article I highlighted essential notes, the number of deaths in total, the actual number from the Living Care Facility and the single diagnosed case of an EMT worker where in the early days did not know or had prepared for the virus to end all viruses.

There is no discussion about the staff at Evergreen and if any of them have since tested positive, been admitted to hospital and/or are recovering off site. Again there is no consistent message anywhere along with numbers to run to get a full picture of what is going on across the country.  So flip a YouTube Video of the Khan Academy and do the math to find out the percent of deaths in total, without the oldsters and contrast with the total population of Kirkland.  Oh wait the staff of the Living Care worked at other facilities and brought their best friend with them to the other old folks home so who/what/where/when.  Again this is a disease of both tracking and of numbers to put it all in perspective.

Now the ugly truth, this has again shown that this is a disease of economics and the reality of that I will once again address in another blog post about that issue.  Ah this is why I am socially distancing and continuing with the protocol of fuck you stay away from me long into the future.

I believe the last words in the article says it all.  No way forward.

Where coronavirus outbreak started in Washington state, officials see hope as cases appear to be leveling off

Robert Klemko
The Washington Post
March 27 2020

KIRKLAND, Wash. —The suburban hospital that handled the first onslaught of coronavirus patients weeks ago — a crush of seriously ill and dying nursing home residents that signaled the beginning of the national health crisis — is now offering cautious optimism to people across the United States who are searching for an end to the springtime nightmare: They believe they might have flattened the curve here.

At EvergreenHealth Medical Center, two miles from the shuttered Lifecare nursing home where 35 patient deaths were linked to the virus, officials say their rate of new covid-19 cases has remained steady for two weeks, leveling off at a trickle. On some days, doctors here see just one new case and haven’t seen more than four in a single day since mid-March. Few need admission to the intensive care unit, which is now half full, two weeks after overflow necessitated transfers to nearby hospitals.

“We don’t know if this last two weeks has been a calm before the storm or if the social distancing and all those things that are being practiced are working,” said EvergreenHealth CEO Jeff Tomlin, whose hospital has handled 40 of Washington state’s more than 130 virus-related deaths. He said the hospital is no longer overwhelmed, though it still lacks needed supplies.

“You will never hear me declaring victory at any point of this,” he said. “But I can tell you we’re making sure we have enough supplies, beds and ventilators as we can. I’d say we’re gearing up just in case a surge does happen like in New York or in Italy.”

In the state that saw the nation’s first confirmed covid-19 case on Jan. 31, and the first recorded coronavirus-related death on Feb. 29, initial dire predictions of massive spikes have waned even as testing has increased rapidly. While the number of cases in Washington state grew by as much as 28 percent in one day on March 15 — it has since slowed significantly statewide, as have hospitalizations and deaths.

State authorities said there have been 2,580 positive cases and 132 deaths, and as testing in Washington has ramped up, the percentage of positive cases has remained low — holding at about 7 percent.

“We know this is still a dire challenge, we know we have not turned the corner and we are not even close to the end of this battle, but we do think there is some evidence that our community mitigation strategy — to close schools, restaurants and theaters, to prohibit gatherings — we think these things have slowed the rate of increase in King, Snohomish and Pierce counties,” Inslee said during a news conference Thursday, pointing to a graph showing Washington’s rate of new cases beginning to flatten while most other states trend upward.

While cases continue to surge in metropolitan areas in New York, Michigan and Louisiana, Inslee’s take on what is happening in the Pacific Northwest could signal that there is a way out, if people continue efforts to keep from spreading the disease by limiting contact. Cases also are flattening in China and South Korea — where authorities ramped up testing and used strict social distancing — and research indicates that social distancing can delay a surge in cases so severe they require intensive treatment and overwhelm hospitals.

“It is a glimmer of hope,” Inslee said. “This is suggestive that some of the things we’re doing together is having some very modest improvement. The things we did two weeks ago are now appearing in our hospitals.”

At Overlake Hospital in Bellevue, about seven miles south of Kirkland, doctors have seen a recent uptick in cases, with about 20 to 30 positive tests a day, what they believe to be due to viral spread throughout the region before strict social-distancing policies took effect two weeks ago. David Knoepfler, Overlake’s chief medical officer, said his hospital has about 70 covid-positive cases — or people they are working to rule out — and that patient traffic has been “much higher and accelerating quickly.”

But Knoepler also said he believes strong social-distancing policies could lead to an imminent decline.

“What we are seeing now is a result of delaying the social distancing until 1-2 weeks ago,” he said. “I am hopeful that in another week we will see some leveling off.”

‘A military operation’

In the beginning of March, when the coronavirus had touched only this state, Chief Joseph Sanford stood in the middle of Central Way and Lake Street, Kirkland’s busiest intersection, and took a picture in each of four directions. No cars. The city was in panic. Sanford was attending multiple covid-19 task force meetings per day and was managing a swelling list of firefighters under quarantine after potential exposure to virus-carrying patients.

People were dying, and the spread of the virus was both inevitable and terrifying.

Today, while traffic has resumed at a tempered pace, the chief and his counterparts in local government have begun to take stock of what worked, and what they might pass on to other communities. New York, with its population density, is an outlier, but fire and EMS leaders from communities like Aspen, Colo.; Rochester, Minn.; and Taos, N.M.; call several times per day seeking advice on how to respond to a virus just beginning to make an impact on those communities.

Sanford is an especially good person to ask: Out of 95 EMS personnel, just one has tested positive for covid-19, despite Kirkland officials having no expectation of encountering the especially contagious virus in this suburban enclave east of Seattle.

Rather than enter a potentially infected nursing home, Kirkland first responders asked staff to bring patients out into the fresh air to reduce risk.

They stripped the back of the ambulance of unnecessary equipment and separated the front and back compartments with thick transparent plastic shields, to speed up the decontamination process. They used electrostatic foggers to lay down disinfectant in big coats. The tweaks took the cleaning process from 40 minutes to five.

“There was no example to follow,” Sanford said. “We were first.”

EvergreenHealth officials this week have been drafting a release on best practices, to be released late this week, in an effort to educate hospitals around the country on what worked in Kirkland. A spokesperson for EvergreenHealth said the hospital was uniquely positioned to deal with an infectious disease outbreak, owing to its status as one of Washington’s highest-rated hospitals and the presence of Francis Riedo, the hospital’s Johns Hopkins-schooled and CDC-trained medical director of infection control.

Their cheatsheet for hospitals will include a host of procedural items and a few examples of social engineering. For example, EvergreenHealth advises the strongest feasible limits on visitors at the outset — banning them — until the situation allows for family members to safely enter the hospital. That way, the hospital never has to walk back less-stringent policies.

“The other thing we learned right away was how much you have to communicate and how much you have to be present,” Tomlin said, noting that people need to hear a consistent voice of leadership. “It does begin to feel very much like a military operation in terms of logistics and operations and communications.”

‘Unseen enemy’

While the medical community continues to urge caution, many Kirkland residents have begun to look beyond the virus to the looming economic threat to the 6,000 small businesses that call the city home. Those concerns multiplied this week as a recommended shutdown of “nonessential” businesses became a mandated one, Inslee threatening potential police action should businesses defy it.

The clash playing out here — between economic forces and medical concerns — lies ahead for thousands of American communities that lag weeks behind Kirkland in their coronavirus timelines. It also mirrors the debate happening inside the White House, as President Trump has set Easter as a target for the United States to — in his words — “have the country opened up and raring to go.” This is a projection that defies expert medical projections on his own coronavirus task force, but echoes sentiments swirling from coast to coast that the nation might not be able weather societal shutdown for an extended period.

Although new covid-19 cases have plateaued locally in the Kirkland area, Mayor Penny Sweet said she is getting an influx of requests for economic assistance, as business owners begin to calculate how long they can last without revenue.

“What has not slowed down for me is the deluge of calls and emails I’m getting from community members who are panicked about the economics of it all,” Sweet said. “I’m glad the governor made the call to shut the state down, but I got a lot of calls today saying they’re picking winners and losers, and small businesses will be the losers unless we take action.

“The really scary consequences are yet to happen.”

Seeing no clear path to solvency, Scott Holm, owner of Chainline Brewing in Kirkland, is one of many who have written to Sweet for help. Like others who have contacted the mayor this month, he asked for an order similar to the one just issued in Seattle mandating a moratorium on commercial evictions. All the city could offer came Wednesday afternoon in the form of a link on the Chamber of Commerce website to apply for seed money from Google, a $250,000 relief fund.

“The fund is pretty much small potatoes compared to what people really need,” Sweet said. “But it’s a start. It’s not going to pay anybody’s rent.”

The best-selling beer at Chainline is Tune Up IPA. It, along with the six-year-old company’s name and several of its beers, is a nod to Holm’s previous career in bicycle sales. His “pride and joy,” though, is the “Polaris Pilsner,” which won a silver medal at the 2016 Great American Beer Festival.

He’s not bottling any more for the time being, and he’s moving what stock he has out the door as soon as possible, because while the state allows him to sell the beer during the shutdown, he can’t serve it in the taproom. Holm, 42, said he has had to lay off most of his staff during the outbreak as he prepares to pay two rents: One for the current brewery, soon to be demolished to make room for Google’s expanding campus, and the other for the new location, still being fitted.

“We could last a few weeks into the shutdown,” Holm said. “We could sell through the inventory we have, assuming the landlord doesn’t evict us. Then we’re done. Like many small businesses, we’re leveraging quite a bit, and our house is our collateral. So if this business fails, we lose the house. That’s the reality.”

Making matters worse, Scott’s wife, Michelle, is an ER physician at EvergreenHealth.

Scott is now watching their 6-year-old son, Cade, because schools are closed and none of their friends and family in the neighborhood will pitch in, fearing Michelle could be exposed to the virus at work.

“They try to be nice about it, but ultimately nobody wants to be around her or me or our son, because of this unseen enemy,” he said.

A resistance among some small business owners was evident in the city’s busy shopping district the day Inslee put out the mandate as some stores remained open, including a massage spa.

Daniel O’Malley defended his decision to keep open Epicurean Edge, a specialty knife store, as a necessity to avoid layoffs.

“I think that this is such a big thing for everyone that emotionally it’s important to keep things moving as much as we can while being safe,” O’Malley said.

Kellie Stickney, the city’s communications manager, said the desire to get back to normal is misguided. “It’s becoming very difficult to convince people that we are not out of this thing yet,” she said. “We don’t see disasters here. We don’t see tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes. The most people get here is a lot of snow, so it’s hard for people to understand what it is to be in disaster mode.”

Holm understands the medical necessity for Inslee’s order, but it doesn’t make it any less devastating. To add insult to injury, friends on social media with paying jobs during the shutdown appear to be treating the days off as “one big vacation.”

“Their main concern right now is boredom from being forced to stay home, which I just can’t quite square,” Holm says.

The virus chews up his business by day, and in the evenings, it chews up his wife. Most nights she comes home in street clothes, having left her scrubs at the hospital, part of her new routine. Cade, who is learning to write, leaves illustrated notes for her arrival: “I love you mommy.” She clings to order and cleanliness in the home, Scott says, as a means of coping with shifting hours and a deadly disease at work.

Though hopeful that this will pass, that Kirkland will return to normalcy before too long, he is trying to stave off bankruptcy while dealing with stress, anxiety and uncertainty.

“Some of us are fighting for our lives,” Holm said. “I don’t see a clear path forward.”

Stand Up Sit Down

Fight fight fight as the cheer goes.  Here is the real problem facing the American public, the willingness to do so.  The first week panic buying, hoarding and purchasing guns set the tone.  The tone that as Americans we know fuck all what to do in a crisis but go its about ME ME ME!

The endless mythology about Americans includes such Unicorns as Meritocracy, the Paul Bunyan up by the bootstraps or the concept of the American Dream or the national ethos of our society and of course the generous spirit of the people.  (The author of that piece alone says it all, Bennett was and is a fucktard of high order)  And now that is a perfect trifecta of bullshit.

We can now say sitting atop our pile of toilet paper and snacks that we are not the stereotype or prototype of goodness and perfection that we present to ourselves.  No, we are all assholes.

The below is an excerpt from a paper on the concept of American liberty.  It is from a conservative view natch but in reality aren’t most “liberals” really conservatives who like Gay and Black people, in small situations, largely confined to sports or the arts but aren’t they?

Abstract
Through publically agreed laws that correspond to a common set of public restrictions, the ‘people as a sovereign body’ serves to protect against violations of individual liberty and despotic power. Where no such common body exists, individuals are deprived of this protection. In such cases, individuals must obey without liberty, while those in power command under a state of license. Neoliberal theorists maintain that any common personality, with its corresponding set of public and arbitrary positive and negative restrictions on liberty, undermines individual liberty. Neoliberal theory only allows for private restrictions on liberty. Against these neoliberal assumptions, we argue that rejecting public restrictions on liberty does not promote individual liberty. To the contrary, it creates conditions in which free individuals become servile and political inequality becomes entrenched, where citizens are divided into those who obey and those who command. Tracing the consequences of neoliberalism, we argue that unless we take seriously both the people as a political category and the right to equal and reciprocal coercion, individual liberty will be at risk. The article argues that neoliberalism ultimately leads to the total exclusion of certain citizens under the veil of full liberty. With the vanishing of the people’s will comes the utter disappearance of certain citizens, who live in a spontaneous society as if they were stateless or lawless persons. To better understand the connections between the rejection of the concept of the people, private restrictions on liberty and the fostering of the servile citizen, this paper considers the political philosophy of Hayek and Nozick. It also considers key ideas from Locke and Kant—theorists who, despite the differences between their philosophical perspectives, and despite the fact that they both provided crucial inspiration for Hayek’s political economy and Nozick’s libertarianism, stressed the protective role of the people with regard to individual liberty.

Now we elected Trump, most of our States are governed by Conservatives with many States super majority ones where the Legislature is about a single color and that usually is the one of blood and it will take massive amounts of blood shed to change this dynamic anytime soon. Americans are not liberal in any sense of the word.   Is Sanders a liberal? Yes and it is why he would never be President as much like the deep in woods Conservative he is true blue.  No compromise, none.  Who is like that? Mitch McConnell.  The only difference is one is in power and one is not.  I am more afraid of the Jowls McConnell then Bernie any day but America the ignorant sees it different.  Americans are ignorant and arrogant traits shared by Jowls and that crosses the political spectrum.

I was concerned that because of Bernie’s incalcitrant strident nature little would get done and then I realized Trump is exactly like that and equally stubborn and unwilling to change or budge, the difference is that beneath it all I actually believe Bernie gives a shit, which Trump does not. And his missteps and miscalculations cost him and now we have white Obama only older and less charismatic.  Again I never thought Obama was a liberal man no, he is definitively a neoliberal as described above.    We are fucked either way in  the upcoming election.

But the reality is that we have to actually look to the more “less” liberal countries to understand how to handle the Coronation Virus as it will be a coronation in the upcoming election.  The reality is that we are now in 9/11 years and how do we change our way of thinking to adjoin with the reality of what it means to live in less realized Democracy, which for the record we have been for a decade.

The New York Times did an outstanding job explaining the trajectory of what we need to do to handle this and this is just one of what is more to come in the age of environmental meltdown and our   global economy.

They made some points that only a few days ago I had shared with my only person to person contact the Baristas at my coffee shop.  I said it will go on through May and into June and that we will have civil unrest, I predict around the end of May, by Memorial Day as the weather clears and that will be just over the two month mark where many are now unemployed and been housebound for over 60 days; Along with the added mixed messages and the endless trolling on the internet with Russian bots stirring the shit so expect a Charlottesville in a city with a well established Chinatown such as San Francisco or New York, even Seattle as that was the first city with the noted outbreak.  But yes it is coming and it is here. 

The next borders will be closing state lines and yes indeed Florida has declared mandatory quarantine for any resident from New York or New Jersey entering the state.  How that will be enforced and secured who the fuck cares, I knew that was coming once the local cities in New York and Jersey said to the rich folks, stay the fuck away from your second home.  And sure enough Westport, Connecticut is now ground zero there tied to a party from a wealthy woman and her international guest list.  Again I called it – rich white people problems.  And you thought those spring breakers in Miami were the virus whores. Wrong again.  Idiots yes and they will spread disease but they will also do so in STD’s.

And to do that we are going to have to start tracking people and that is not going to go over well but in a moral panic there is no better time in which to do it.  It is coming, it is here. 

So lets get out of here well, Jesus better take the wheel or not. I had said that many of these outbreaks were tied to the incest communities that I call religious sects or cults. as well they are just that. Yes including South Korea, I just thought that boy band was annoying but I recall the group marriages and shit of my youth.  They are all the same with the touching, the tribal nature and the endless bullshit that somehow makes them think they are exempt as Jesus is their savior and what-the-fuck-ever they believe that is all bullshit.  They actually think they are an “essential service” as this idiot did in Mt. Juilet just outside Nashville.

And as already mentioned Ohio has already found ways to stop abortions, Kentucky voting and now add another state to the right wing oppression virus, Texas, as it too is stopping abortions under the guise of elective surgery.  I have said that if one thing conservative religious kooks love is getting up into that vadge however necessary.  I used to say that in Tennessee endlessly and again proven not wrong.  But then again Texas get up into the anti vaxx crowd, they are the problem. But hey you old people you can die the Governor has given yyou permission to do that to save the economy. 

Bill Maher was joking, or not, that if the election was held and Trump lost he would not leave but hey what happens if they decide to forestall the election.  There are already issues surrounding voting and we have this Wartime President with all these powers. Hmm makes you wonder.

But let me ask the most critical question:  Who are “essential workers?” Well that is now going to include all food service workers, from Grocery Clerks, to Barista’s to anyone who handles both food and medicine. So that would include UPS/FedEx/USPS, Uber and others who are delivering all of this to us in lockdown who can afford to be in lockdown while this shit is going on.  They are all going to need to be thought of differently as then what when its over? Really?  Really?

I said to my wine vendor (between coffee and booze I do my part) that out of this will rise a new power broker, the small business that kept going during this shit and if they let this slip out of their hands cause the gloves were slippery they are making a mistake. The Dry Cleaners/Laundry, the Baker, the local Pharmacy and of course our Bodegas and small restaurants that pivoted so well to keep employees working and food being served are going to be a powerful force to reckon with if they choose to unite and demand change.

If not expect wages to fall again to 2008 levels and the excuses by big business about the closures, the endless bailouts to the big companies as they have the lobbyists patrolling the grounds of Congress like a virus waiting to attach to an unsuspecting Congressperson.  Where is the Small Business Association and the local of Chamber of Commerce when it actually comes to representing and voicing the concerns of those who are the ones they are supposed to be caring about.  Funny if same small business folks hit their meetings up and joined and starting changing that dynamic once meetings are allowed.

So you have a choice, to stand up or just sit down on the couch and stream something as Netflix, Hulu and Amazon are cleaning up in this crisis without ever getting up off the couch.

So I leave you with actual data and stats about Covid and compare it to other viruses with often worse outcomes. So wear a mask, gloves, stay at least 3 feet away and if you are sick with anything stay the fuck home and monitor your temp and in turn if not sick clean your house you have time and hoarded supplies so there you go.

And again change in behavior and in turn personal responsibility will do wonders on both health and mind going forward regardless.

Gone Baby Gone

The refrain of the Small Business man is gone away. It has been replaced with Job Creator, a sort of creepy euphemism I assume for the small business man but in reality it refers to Corporations, who are people too my friend.

In reality the whole idea of trickle down actually does work in this case. The larger Corporations often lead to smaller businesses from whom they rely on for a myriad of responsibilities.  Think of all the industries and in turn jobs created and generated from the Auto industry.  It is very much a trickle down economy in that respect.  Suppliers, Manufacturers, and assorted other related industries often crop up in response to the larger community needs as the bigger Corporation passes that buck. That includes Restaurant tabs, the housing market and even Philanthropy that results.  When Big Daddy does good so does the rest of the household, right Maggie? Tennessee Williams knew that much.

But the recovery that never was for Main Street has finally reared its truth.  The article below discusses the long term problems faced by those uncertain of what is happening to their communities, to their business and to their own personal wealth not dictated by a generous Board of Directors.

This roof is hot and the Cat needs to jump. But when you have nowhere to jump and you only have so many lives left you wonder.

Small Businesses Still Struggle, and That’s Impeding a Recovery

By CATHERINE RAMPELL
Published: February 13, 2013

In the recovery so far, small businesses have largely been left behind. Initially, loans were hard to come by and consumers weren’t shopping. Now, small-business owners say, Washington is throwing up additional roadblocks.

In survey after survey, owners of small businesses report unbridled pessimism about the economy. The small-business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business — a major industry group for small businesses that surveys a sample of its members each month — is stuck at recessionary levels. In January’s report, released this week, expectations for business conditions six months from now were at their fourth-lowest reading in nearly 40 years.

Comparable measures for large companies have exceeded their prerecession levels. That is partly because big companies have a larger global footprint, so they are benefiting from strong growth in places like China and India. Small businesses are more closely tied to the leaden domestic economy, said Paul Ballew, chief analytic and data officer at Dun & Bradstreet, so weak growth at home is weighing more heavily on them.

That gulf in optimism between small and large companies seems to widen, though, during occasions of greater policy uncertainty and Washington gridlock — including the present. And while small businesses always grumble about taxes and regulation, they are especially likely to do so now. Asked by the National Federation of Independent Business about their “single most important problem,” small-business owners are now as likely to name taxes or government requirements as they are to name sales, which had reigned supreme from September 2008 until mid-2012.

“Politicians are uniformly quick to offer paeans to small businesses, but their actions have directly held back the sector, to the huge detriment of the economy,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisors. “The timing of this latest slump is particularly frustrating because the key precondition for a real small-business recovery — the normalization of bank lending to commercial and industrial companies — is within reach.”

It is unclear why policy and economic uncertainty would be taking a greater toll on small versus large businesses.

Smaller companies might have be more alarmed by headlines about the debt ceiling and fiscal tightening because they don’t have armies of in-house analysts to advise them about relative risks, said Nicholas Bloom, an economics professor at Stanford who maintains an index on policy uncertainty.

Smaller businesses are also more fixated on domestic uncertainty because they are less diversified than big firms — both geographically and in terms of product lines — and so have smaller margins for error. The last several years have offered multiple false starts in the domestic economy (remember “Recovery Summer” in 2010?), and small businesses that acted on any sense of optimism often found themselves badly burned.

Ralph Jensen, president of Pro Data IV, a nine-person accounting and bookkeeping firm in Green Bay, Wis., has watched and learned. He would like to open another office in Appleton, about 30 miles south, and hire a new employee. But he is concerned about how another blowup in Washington, or at the very least lingering uncertainty about tax increases and spending cuts, might affect his clients’ expansion plans.

Unlike a big company that can take a tax write-off for investing in space or equipment it ends up not needing, “I just don’t have much wiggle room if I fail,” he said.

Before he would feel comfortable expanding, he said, “I’d have to see my business is growing consistently for a long time, and I would have to have really, really strong faith in the fact that people were going to be opening more businesses around here that would be looking for services like mine.”

No matter what fiscal showdown Washington might have in the coming weeks, recent Congressional decisions have already had concrete effects on the economic security of small businesses.

Many business owners report continued confusion about what their health care liabilities will be in 2014, for example, when some employers will be required to offer health insurance and other changes to health benefits kick in.

Owners who sell directly to consumers say they are also concerned about the effects that Congress’s recent tax increases, like the end of the payroll tax holiday, will have on their bottom line.

“You know I’m in kind of a unique situation in that I don’t sell anything that anybody needs, the way you need groceries or some other things,” said Jason Starkey, the owner of Starkey Products, in Orange City, Fla., which sells lighting products and other accessories that are installed in new cars. “I know I’ve noticed the tax hike that just occurred, so people making $50,000 to $60,000, the people who buy our products, must be noticing it, too.”

The latest commercial and industrial lending numbers from the Federal Reserve suggest that the credit market for small businesses is healing. Rising housing values, too, are good for small-business borrowers, who often take out personal loans to finance their businesses.

But many small businesses are still struggling to have their credit needs met.

“The banks are not lending. They claim they are, but they’re not,” said Summit Kumar, president of Summit Telecom, a telecommunications company in Hicksville, N.Y. “I got a line of credit from a bank five years ago and I paid it back. Now the same bank says I’m ‘high-risk business’ and turns me away.” He acknowledges that his business has taken a hit in recent years and that he has had to lay off employees, but he says that his inability to get credit is part of the problem. He says he has had to resort to cash advance companies that expect him to pay back loans at exorbitant interest rates. One alternative lender said it would give him $50,000 if he paid it back with $75,000 six months later.

The struggles of small businesses ripple through the rest of the economy. They are reluctant to invest in expensive capital equipment, for one.

Mr. Starkey said that eight or nine years ago he could have justified investing in a $25,000 piece of equipment that would help him make a particular piece for a Ford Mustang, since he knew he would be able to earn back his investment in six months. But today, he doesn’t know if he will be able to get a return in six months or two years, and “having that kind of money tied up in one item is just too great a risk.”

Metrics of small-business hiring and hiring intentions are also very low, according to the National Federation of Independent Business and the Labor Department. That might partly explain why so many middle-age women have dropped out of the labor force in recent years, said Mr. Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisers, since women are more likely to be employed at smaller service sector companies than, say, manufacturers.

“Until the small-business sector starts to feel better,” he said, “the rest of the economy isn’t going to feel much better either.”

Fly into the Coop

In line with many posts of late the survival of Small Business is going to have to become a co-operative not competitive one. Without each other and our expertise we are relying upon what Blanche DuBois used to say “the kindness of strangers.” And when upon occassion that works out it also has immense risks of its own that cannot be overlooked.

As you can see from the article below many Small Business owners are like me – in need of others like me to work with and gain support from. I have on many ocassions bartered/exchanged my skill set with others when I needed specific assistance but I would love to find myself in simply more than a “networking gathering” that is more akin to a speed dating event and more a geuniune opportunity to grown and expand.

Be that a reflection of the business or industry I am involved in, the economy or even the region I live in there is clearly a need for connection vs competition.

From Remodeling Online..

In survey conducted by The UPS Store franchise network for National Small Business Week, the majority of small business owners indicated a strong desire to work with other small business owners, primarily because their peers are most able to understand their needs and concerns.

Approximately 75 percent of small business leaders said they understood the importance of receiving support from other small business owners. However, only half of respondents (53 percent) indicated that they work with other small business leaders, revealing a significant gap of support in the small business community.

The study also showed that even though 46 percent of small business owners would like to receive support from a local business owner, just one in four entrepreneurs receive any kind of support from a business partner — local or otherwise.

The UPS Store survey results underscore the need for small businesses to be proactive about creating strategic partnerships. In many cases, strategic partners can be found in small business owners outside of the industry. The owners of companies that sell complementary products or services are particularly promising for strategic alliances.

It’s also important for small business owners to understand that strategic partnerships and alliances can be as formal or informal as they want them to be. Sometimes the nature of the relationship calls for long-term legal agreements; in other instances, the relationship can exist on an informal basis.

But regardless of whether the partnership is formal or informal, the key is that both parties benefit from the arrangement, and that both partners share the risks and rewards.

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Dewey Cheat em and How

That old joke that applies to Lawyers is rather pertinent and ironic these days given the current avalanche of Lawyers or want to be ones flooding the market and the venerable white shoe firm of Dewey & LeBoeuf filing for bankruptcy on Monday it sends a message that not all is what it appears to be when it comes to the legal profession.

Law, like Medicine, is a business. When you have, however, those not fully trained in actually running a business trying to run a business you have the insane running the insane asylum. It doesn’t mean that Doctors and Lawyers can’t be Indian Chiefs but it is sort of odd that you spend most of your educational and professional life studying one field and expected to master it while also being a jack of all trades. And you know what they say about that.

I see a great deal of similarity of Dewey’s failings to the fictional show of Mad Men. There the stars of the company are the Ad Men, the creators behind the campaigns, the rainmakers, the one’s who finalize the deal. While the office and business managers have less glamorous and thereby less interesting jobs. And what began as Sterling Cooper is now a third company with more names on the door but its still the same only more challenging as they aren’t what they used to be. Running a business is a lot different than doing a business. And just because you can doesn’t mean you should.

Its why good Lawyers/Partners have those whose jobs is to manage and the same with medicine. But in reality most are single shingle individuals with a small staff or none even to navigate the myriad of extrinsic businesses who do have just that a myriad of layers in which to compete, negotiate and manipulate. It becomes exhausting regardless of the business and its why many new businesses fail in the first year.

I try to work with single shingle professionals over larger companies simply because often rates and fees are tied to overhead. Its also how I market my business. But in today’s market that is becoming de rigueur and often hard to determine who is someone with just a low overhead and competent or simply on survival mode and in over their head.

I have frequently said that regardless of size a business is a reflection of its Management, their philosophy and ambition. Regardless if a business is publically vs privately held there is a constant drumbeat from those who want more, less or just to keep it the same.

We are judged by the company we keep. Perhaps we need to think about what that means in the bigger picture.

Going For Broke

Exclusive to eLocal Blog-Off Experts

I write upon occasion for eLocal.com where “experts” in their field comment on the question of the week. The responses can be both insightful, educational and often personal. The question last week was How Did the Recession Change the Way You Do Business? The responses of myself and others can be found here where I was graciously awarded “most insightful” comment that week.

I try to be forthcoming and honest as I, like many others, had to rethink and reform their business after the 2008 marked the beginning of the economic meltdown. In a way it was better thing for me as I simply did not enjoy the physical demands of remodeling homes any longer. Or perhaps I really preferred remodeling my own properties then reselling them with no pressure to worry about customers budgets or overall satisfaction. Its one thing to not mind a plank to a toilet its another to ask others to do it graciously. I found that what I had no problem with I did have a problem asking others to do it. I simply knew what it took personally and when you can’t take yourself out of the equation its time to find a new equation. So consulting, advising and education works better for me. But its always a risk to change horses midstream and not to say the challenge of being a solo-prenuer vs having a partner to bounce ideas off of, commiserate or simply just laugh with. I cannot say its been a fun ride but its been one.

I invite others to peruse e.Local and see what other experts in the field have to say about many issued relating to remodeling, business, and other subjects on the home improvement trail