Stress Test

We are all there now and the endless confusing messaging, the grandstanding by Politicians (this weeks winner the asshole from Kentucky, Thomas Massie) and the overall stillness of the city streets that ebb and flow depending on the weather and how stir crazy individuals get.

For the first time I shopped in a calm Whole Foods who were letting people in one at a time, the same with Target (although they were not really doing so as the joint was kinda empty like the streets) and the ferry once again transported a single passenger to Manhattan (me) and only myself and one other and the terminal empty, the Seaport path utterly deserted if not a few walkers/runners; All of which were kept within social distancing guidelines.   But yesterday when the temps hit in 70s I just felt I could not go out as I knew that they would be out there. They are those who seem to have no concept of social distancing, seem to think they and their baby carriages, dogs, bikes and partners they are walking with take priority when it comes to navigating the sidewalks.  Again why Jersey City closed its small parks that people could at least walk around or sit away from each other and be outside is beyond my understanding but then again this is the dick off where the Mayor here wants to shove his in anywhere he can prove his is the biggest as the State park a two stop light rail ride is wide open and all parks are open across the water so much for not leaving the house and confined to your closet in a tower of germs.

This has done one thing for me, never wanting to live in an apartment complex again. From not knowing how to properly dispose of waste/recycling/breaking down boxes to just their overall superiority that comes from insecurity explains why New York is the epicenter with Jersey as the second.  There is something about the mindset here that contributes to the way they behave and interact with others.  Before the virus I actually liked the tough as nails demeanor and it suited me but  with the crisis it like the medical center has revealed that beneath the tough shell is a weak soft mass of tissue that is utterly untenable.   Which explains the histrionics about how every city needs the biggest the mostest the bestst medical equipment to the overwhelming honorifics and beatitudes that have the medical professionals equivalent to the Military or the “First Responder” club which for decades has been the way to acknowledge those who work in shitty jobs but are given faux titles of respect to somehow compensate for failing to compensate and recognize them for their work and in turn excuse them for their behaviors when they fail to live up to these absurd concepts and beliefs about said men (and women) with guns.  And that goes with Doctors and Nurses and the bizarre parallel universe that has them now Generals and Soldiers on the “front” line of defense.  When we have heard repeated story after story of turning away symptomatic patients and in turn handling some equipment and treatment without training and of course the decision about who gets treated versus who does not.   Expect more of that to be reveled when the crisis is over.

Yes folks I am not one to hyper grandstand or laud praise on those people who elect to enter fields of choice, pursue the necessary study, licensing or training required to be in said fields.  As we also know the quality and consistency of said education and training is a variable that is akin to the transmission of a virus, it is a matter of luck and some careful precautions.

I saw a parade in one Jersey township of lovely white middle class families lining the streets of their neighborhood with signs and balloons as the Teachers drove through the streets in their own cars and waved to the adoring students and their families.   I would love to see that say in the Bronx or Queens which are the hot zones for the virus and where many families have no access or availability of the internet connections, space or tech skills required to access distant learning. Again like the restaurant and food industry you get what you pay for and what you can pay for defines the type of food and place you can eat. And the same concepts of Education that you can apply to the food industry you can apply to the medical industrial complex as well.    Access and availability are dependent upon your income, your status in society and of course race and gender as well as age. Ugly truths are just that truths not ugly ones just uncomfortable ones, like anal warts or herpes. Treatable but not always curable.

This is not over by a long shot I suspect it will move through June as we now are cycling through a massive seasonal change that now revolves to the countries below the equator. As New Zealand already closed its borders and in turn contained the virus the same would have to be in all countries that are moving into winter when viruses thrive.   And it means all of those in the Northern climes have to vet, test and force not request FORCE those entering into quarantine for 14 days.  And yes we have that power to do so but how and to what that means is another massive attempt at closing ports both air and sea and mobilizing a massive effort to do so.  This is not impossible but it is.

Then we have the issues that run from immigration, residents on visa’s or pending ones, we have massive economic switches that have been pulled which means every single sector of our GDP will have to rethink how they do business and what that means for them going forward. This is not like 2008 which had to focus on the banks, lending and financial service industries.  NO, this is about every single business and industry and even institutions on how they will go forward post pandemic.

In 2008 that was called the stress test:  A bank stress test is an analysis conducted under hypothetical unfavorable economic scenarios, such as a deep recession or financial market crisis, designed to determine whether a bank has enough capital to withstand the impact of adverse economic developments. In the United States, banks with $50 billion or more in assets are required to undergo internal stress tests conducted by their own risk management teams as well as by the Federal Reserve.

Now change that word or business “bank” and replace it with Hospitals, Medical/Health Insurance, Education/Schools, Contracting, Food and Restaurant Industry, Supply Chain – as in any and all; Government,  Manufacturing; Tech, Utilities, Infrastructure, Communication, Hospitality, Small Businesses that run a wide gamut of type, Transportation both local, national and international, Finance and Investment, and even Government and its unyielding bureaucracy.  In other words: Every single business, industry and institution that provides services in the United States and within the larger global economy will have to undergo a stress test.

What that means again is deep cleaning to find out what is needed, what needs to be tossed and what we can use and repurpose for dual purpose or for something else entirely. Think about a multi cooker and all it can do in your home during a  medical crisis? Yogurt – check.  Rice – Check. Bread – Check. Sear – Check.  Steam – Check.  Slow cook – check.  High Cook – Check.  We now get why the Instant Pot  is so popular it does it all! That is one item that can withstand a stress test.

I suspect that some of these furloughs and layoffs will continue on well past the lifting of quarantine as each industry evaluates the need over the reality.  That insurance company, that bank, that distribution company or builder that has made do with a piecemeal effort of staffing and closing of offices, branches and moving those to online or remote work spaces I suspect will continue. This means that business can literally switch many employees akin to Uber drivers as they can work out of their home, using their own internet connections, equipment and more importantly their residence and this will reduce overall operating costs in which to downsize and in turn scatter their offices to varying cost friendly tax incentive award locations.   And that big bribe will become the new big dick in the room as varying States and Governors will use the data from Covid and their varying dick measuring protocols to prove how “SAFE” and “PRODUCTIVE” they were during this pandemic.  This is where the stress test is about voting and being active in the election process.  Some dicks need a condom to stop the spread of disease and some simply need a circumcision.

So Seattle, San Francisco, Boston (why I have no idea that place is horrid but whatever oh wait HARVARD)  and of course New York will end up as always winners in the crap shoot but then look at Nashville or other second tier cities that are already in mid stream but Tornados or other issues that plague the city – finding out it has no infrastructure, the industry they relied upon such as Hospitality is now suddenly a non essential service as we move forward will bring much of the growth to a halt. And the city long before the double whammy was already in budget crisis. So how it pulls out I am not sure but right now it won’t pass a stress test of any kind.

But that goes for many other cities of similar nature – Las Vegas. There was a mass shooting that should have already changed the way the game is played and now this.   As I suspect the old road trip will be the new staycation and the idea of getting on a flight to spread germs, get germs and the need to have a collective germ-a-thon, like Mardi Gras, Coachella and other larger festivals and gatherings will also need to be less of a must go, as can I see it online?

That will not last but the disposable income, the need to Instagram and top one another most likely will when you are simply trying to get out of this and move forward. America has always been a competitive top the Joneses type of country.  As my Parents were first generation Immigrant or second generation immigrant but WASPS in every sense of the word we were much more isolation oriented, aka “private” and yet highly socially conscious as my Parents saw first hand the troubles in ways that I had not.  And as a result I got how things get bad and how you get through it when it hits the fan.  Americans and that includes Immigrants as they came here in pursuit of the bullshit peddled to them and are in fact more vested in that mythology than the native born truly are narcissistic empty folks that rely upon colloquialisms and false notions peddled to them by those whom they have aligned.  The message is as only as good as the messenger and we have many that are mixed if not utterly contradictory. Few of them regardless can withstand a stress test.

I knew what that was like living in Nashville as I heard repeatedly the talking points peddled to them by the real leader in the City, the head of Tourism, Butch Spyrdion, then the Chamber of Commerce that also had tremendous influence if not actual policy plans that were enacted by the supposed elected council and my other favorite body of power, the MDHA that never met a plan or builder or a check attached to a developers hand than the housing authority.  And that is everywhere as I have seen some idiotic building here that blows me away for its arrogance.  And I call it that as the housing is not in line with actual incomes and businesses that live and work in Jersey City.  This is not a suburb of NYC it is a small city that would like to be Williamsburg but it can’t it just is Jersey and that is why I like it.  And I love Manhattan but funny I decided to not live there as I needed to always be socially distant so I would never get too close and too infected with all that is that city.  And all places are in the eye of the beholder. And I always do a stress test before I make a critical decision and while I did not fully do that in this move I am relieved to be here I cannot imagine living in Nashville during this nightmare.

This week 3 million filed for unemployment, that does not include the self employed, the gig employed, the contract employees or those small business owners.  Then we have what this means in the bigger cities with diverse economies that shut down fast and furious and put us all in shock and awe will come out of it better for it but there will be also a sea change about how we work and live. For years the greening of America encourage urban density and clearly we saw that sucks so I suspect a new model of the suburbs will evolve and rather than malls being shopping meccas they will become community centers that have gyms, older day care, younger day care, some shopping, some library and other services that enable mobility and opportunity. The other is building of better neighborhood schools and stopping the insanity of school choice as busing kids across townships is not healthy nor productive.  Perhaps finally Teachers may get the respect they deserve.  And in turn dying towns once neglected may find themselves restored and renewed the essential message of building green.  If it is broke can it be fixed and what does it take? Can it withstand the stress test?

We have become a nation of disposable wipes and then we hoard them when we need to share them. What that says is that we failed to learn that when we were young but then again when all those around you fail to model what they ask you do to.. don’t do as I do do as I say … well you get what we have today.  I was well schooled and maybe this might do what we have failed to do for decades in the me nation.  Ah fuck it we will be back to it within 24 hours of this pandemics end.  Just go for a walk and see what I see.  It is not pretty it won’t stand up to the stress test.