I went to a Target yesterday and to say it was a hot mess would be an understatement. Between empty shelves, some of which I know is a supplier problem and given most merchandise is from China makes sense; however, the problems centered more on merchandising and overall cleanliness. There is a labor shortage but Target has promised a higher wage structure and overall better working conditions, and I saw workers and no issues with checkouts, but there still is an overall shortage of workers willing to work in retail and fast food, the two largest sectors with hospitality facing this problem. Some hotels have already established a protocol that was done in the pandemic, self check in, no room service or housekeeping and that is remaining, less to do with rehiring workers and more in a permanent measure of internal housekeeping and profit boosting due to the lack of guests; that said this I seriously doubt will continue when travelers, particularly business travelers, return. As for restaurants, the ones open with strong reputations that remained during the pandemic were packed and that was during the lunch hour along the same streets only months ago were deserted. I do want to point out that while I walked in the wealthier section of Manhattan, the Upper East Side, I did see many empty storefronts and retail shops with nary a customer, some with signs that request an appointment, much like art galleries in SOHO, and that may be a sign of lack of staff or still residual Covid protocols, on that I am unsure.
As we reopen the issues of rentals and apartments still seem to favor the renter and with the housing market all over the place, last month sales declining, again there is also fewer discounts and incentives. My building is now undergoing massive staff changes as the door is now like the rest, revolving and with the decline in multi family units being built the reality is there are simply fewer tenants and the ones who came for the incentives are leaving as leases expire as well with the New York Times doing a feature on some who are in fact “neighbors” as many are planning to buy and move on. I would like to but with the upcoming evictions now delayed a month I will wait to see how that too effects the market – both in commercial and residential end.
So we have a shortage of labor, a push on evictions held, California looking into allocating funds for paying back rent on those most economically hit by the pandemic and of course the red states cutting extra unemployment, which runs out in September regardless, in time for school, September and October will be the true test as one more shortage remains – Teachers and Superintendents who are leaving in droves.
The complex ebb and flow of the labor market in economic downturns are usually quite predictive, the layoffs occur and the individuals hit the factories of education to upgrade their supposed lost skill set. This falsehood along with the one that students supposedly have thanks to the pandemic are two myths we have not truly gotten over but is perhaps fading with the reality that when you want to learn and work you do and you do so when you need or have to and not because a person is telling you to. Teachers have known this for years and Employers have simply just passed this cost on to the worker to absolve themselves of vesting into their staff’s long term growth. I read where Jeff Bezos in his quest to build Amazon felt the customer was the key, the worker less so. As the culture of Amazon has always been that workers are bees and when they have served their purpose they will die or just go to another hive. In a quote from a recent article about said culture of Amazon, Bezos believes: that people are essentially inherently lazy. The phrase that he would say is, essentially, people would expend the least amount of energy necessary to do what they want or need. And that my friends is the crux of Amazon’s entire system, from workers to customers we are inherently lazy. So much for a focus on customer service and with that it explains the massive turnover the company has with regards to its lower tier labor force. As for their corporate culture, the Times did a story on that years ago and found it toxic to say the least. I know of one woman who went to work for Amazon at night while trying to maintain her job at the storage facility I use and she was found in the back passed out from exhaustion and ended up getting fired from that job for not telling them that she was working two jobs and in turn putting herself and others at risk from both Covid and worker related injuries that could have occurred from her physical health. Amazon allure is that and then as you read the article, the focus on unionization becomes clear and not just with regards to Amazon but for all retail and restaurant work overall.
Which means the current situation with regards to recovery and restoring employment is much akin to the Great Migration of Black Americans in the Depression era that lasted well into the 70s. We are now seeing a similar turn of events only now in reverse with many Black Americans moving back to the South and energizing cities like Atlanta, or Montgomery, where they are electing Black Mayors; cities that are being revitalized with this new energized class of mobile, educated Black Professionals. And with that you are seeing why in those same states immense push back to restrict voting rights and develop a new type of Jim Crow. Ah yes the South shall rise again, they just did not think it would be by the Black people they drove out.
But not all the labor switch is due to that, some of it if not a larger portion was due to the Trump Immigration laws and positions, and when the pandemic hit the reality for those without legal status became more challenging once business shut doors and with that the jobs shuttered with them. Restaurants and hospitality are the largest employers of this classification, so is construction and agriculture which again contributes to some of the issues regarding those supply chains that are not always about materials. Think of the Covid victims in the meatpacking/food processing plants and that too is another group that may have elected to change patterns and move or move into different lines of work.
And lastly the women that we hear repeatedly about how they are the largest portion of population affected by the pandemic. Yes we get it we are the Immigrants and Minorities of all shapes and sizes and colors and we are always the last to get to the table. Why? Cause we put all that shit on the table, who do you think does it?
The one thing that has not been considered is how many women decided to use this as an opportunity to open new businesses, find partnerships and build a better community. That yet will be revealed and the reality is that many, particularly women of color, elected to retain their children in home schooling environments. The media has done an amazing job of illustrating the problems with this dynamic, from lack of broadband, to effective online learning for those children with special needs but in reality there are many who are thriving. The idea of homeschooling is not new, and like CRT it has roots in the 70s with the “Hippie” lifestyle embracing it, later the Evangelical Right taking it on to the point of publishing texts (full of bullshit religious garbage but hey that is how Lifeway became a massive Christian publishing house) to now many Black faces who are the largest growing segment of this type of education. The New Yorker recently did an article on the women who evolved this into a powerful cohort of home educators who may be adding a new element to a consistently changing dynamic of public education.
So for now we have many issues as to why the labor force is not returning in droves back to the low wage jobs they had and are for now looking to new paths and that may not be a bad thing. Catherine Rampall of The Washington Post did a decent essay on why that may be true and that is something that I have long been a champion of – Employers taking on the heavy lifting of training, and promoting their own. And they are looking outside the box to find employees and how to make the box a better wrapped one.
We have dumped much belief on this notion that it is College that trains and educates our workforce and this has in turn placed the focus on secondary education, certain programs and skills to join the workforce, with little to no flexibility on the “type” of skills one needs to find employment, add to this the costs to do so make it almost next to impossible for many to participate and in turn find jobs that will sufficiently compensate the structure that one needs to begin to enter the workforce; this is trickle down economics at its finest when you have massive debt as the ceiling to your home you cannot purchase. Note that the same time home purchases have risen and I suspect that thanks to the stimulus and now child care credits it is making that possible for many who never thought it would be. This again seems counter to the reality of what we are hearing, but automobile purchases are rising and this with a move away from urban cores makes sense. And again that will also affect where one works and who is the primary source of income. Yes folks I do believe at home work will be moving along as a part of the new normal, which despite the belief of it as a negative for women, I suspect otherwise. And yes folks online learning as well. Time will tell.